Last week we rolled out our Major League Pickleball Premier Level Power Rankings as we catch our breath at approximately the midway point in the season.
We didn't want to forget our friends at the Challenger Level of course, so here is our assessment of how teams have performed to this point and what the rest of the season looks like for each of the 10 teams.
This will be especially helpful after all the Waiver Wire changes that happened on Friday.
A few ground rules about these power rankings before we get started ...
- I used 37 points as the "magic number" to make the playoffs – I am predicting a team will need to average at least 1.6 points per match to make the playoffs. This is the same for both Challenger and Premier Levels. For context, the Chicago Slice is in sixth place in points per match, and they are currently averaging 1.57 points per match.
- I use a stat called "Max Points Possible" – this is just their number of remaining matches multiplied by three (3 pts for each win) plus their current points.
- Since the Mid-Season Tournament doesn’t count toward the regular season standings, I am not counting any of those stats in my calculations.
- I also give my predicted percentage chance a team has of making the playoffs. This IS NOT scientific. It takes into consideration current points per match, how many points per match they need to average moving forward to hit 37, and how the team is playing overall right now.
Before we get into the rankings, I think there are three tiers in the Challenger Level:
Tier 1: Playoff Locks - four teams - Brooklyn, SoCal, Las Vegas, and Atlanta
Tier 2: Teams fighting for Playoffs - four teams - Frisco, Chicago, Miami, and Florida
Tier 3: Done for 2024 - two teams - Black Bears, Breakers
These power rankings are a combination of points per match, how the team is playing, recent match outcomes, and my own opinions of team construction.
10. California Black Bears
Original team: (10) Rafa Hewett, (11) DJ Young, (30) Amanda Hendry, (31) Emily Ackerman
Transactions
- Substitution: MLP Washington D.C. - Spencer Smith for DJ Young (Injury)
- Waiver Period #1: Added Susannah Barr and waived Emily Cederquist
- Waiver Period #1: Added Brandon French and waived DJ Young
- Trade Ahead of Waiver Period #2: Traded Susannah Barr to the Atlanta Bouncers for Genie Erokhina
- Trade Ahead of Waiver Period #2: Traded Rafa Hewett to the Las Vegas Night Owls for Mo Alhouni
- Waiver Period #2: Added Chris Haworth and waived Mo Alhouni
Current team: Chris Haworth, Amanda Hendry, Genie Erokhina, Brandon French
Last 5 Matches: W (3-1) Bay Area, W (3-2) TX, W (3-2) ATL, L (1-3) CHI, L (2-3) SoCal.
The Black Bears have had some of the worst luck possible this year. They drafted DJ Young, but soon thereafter he developed a wrist injury and they have been trying to replace him ever since. In addition, the only event they played well was the Mid-Season Tournament, and that doesn’t count toward regular season standings. The Black Bears did right by Susannah and Rafa, trading them to a competing team for some cash. Obviously the players on the team will try their hardest, but this team doesn’t have much to fight for moving forward. We will see how Haworth fares in his first foray into Major League Pickleball.
Chances of making playoffs: 0 percent
The Black Bears became sellers during the second waiver period and are now looking to to the future.
Erik Tice
9. Bay Area Breakers
Original team: (3) Vivian Glozman, (18) Collin Shick, (29) Rachel Rettger, (32) Patrick Kawka
Transactions
- Trade Prior to Waiver Period #1: The Breakers traded Vivian Glozman to the D.C. Pickleball Team (Premier Level) for Allyce Jones and $100k in cash
- Waiver Period #1: Added Jill Braverman and waived Rachel Rettger
- Waiver Period #1: Added DJ Young and waived Patrick Kawka
- Waiver Period #2: Added Martin Emmrich and waived DJ Young
Current team: Collin Shick, Jill Braverman, Allyce Jones, Martin Emmrich
Last 5 Matches: L (1-3) Black Bears, L (2-3) Black Bears, L (2-3) SoCal, L (1-3) ATL, L (0-4) CHI
The Breakers were in first place after the first event of the season – earning two ppm in their six matches. They have since made four transactions, which have provided very little. Since that first event the Breakers have played seven matches, earning five points. They are on a downward spiral right now. So many players have underperformed for the team, including the three players added in the first waiver waiver period – Jill Braverman, Allyce Jones, and DJ Young (until he was waived recently).
Chances of making playoffs: 10 percent
The Breakers are going to have to make up a lot of ground to make the playoffs. Is it possible? Yes. However, they are going to have average 2 points per match, no small feat.
8. Florida Smash
Original team: (5) Travis Rettenmaier, (16) Tammy Emmrich, (25) Pat Smith, (36) Martina Frantova
Transactions
- Substitution: Yates Johnson substituted for Pat Smith at the MLP Washington D.C. - injury substitution
- Waiver Period #1: Added Yates Johnson and dropped Pat Smith
- Waiver Period #2: Added Christa Gecheva and waived Tammy Emmrich
- Waiver Period #2: Added Donald Young and waived Yates Johnson
Current team: Travis Rettenmaier, Martina Frantova, Christa Gecheva, Donald Young
Last 5 Matches: W (3-1) SoCal, W (3-1) Black Bears, L (2-3) LV, L (1-3) ATL, L (2-3) MIA
The Smash haven’t played in the regular season since MLP Washington D.C., and they still have over two thirds of their season left. We don’t really know what the new-look Smash will do. Gecheva is going to need to be comfortable playing on the left with Donald Young, unless they switch Frantova off of playing with Rettenmaier. The Smash could very easily turn their season around quickly or go in the opposite direction.
Chance of making playoffs: 47 percent
Florida is one of four teams fighting for two spots in the playoffs in my mind. They are going to need to score 1.7ppm in the remaining 16 matches in order to do so.
7. Miami Pickleball Club
Original team: (9) Milan Rane, (12) Rianna Valdez, (23) Roscoe Bellamy, (38) Eric Oncins
Transactions
- Waiver Period #1: Added Bobbi Oshiro and waived Rianna Valdez
- Waiver Period #1: Added Noe Khlif and waived Roscoe Bellamy
Current team: Milan Rane, Bobbi Oshiro, Noe Khlif, Eric Oncins
Last 5 Matches: L (2-3) Breakers, L (0-4) Breakers, W (3-2) Florida, L (1-3) Aces, W (3-1) Black Bears
Miami's numbers are very similar to the Smash and it also has over two thirds of the season left. Miami is banking on some newer men to the sport to really carry them. I think they have found two very good up-and-comers in Oncins and Khlif. The ladies will continue being powerhouses with the addition of Oshiro to the lineup. I like the current Miami team and think it has a good chance of making the playoffs.
Chance of making playoffs: 65 percent
Miami needs to average 1.7 points per game in order to make the playoffs.
6. Frisco Pandas
Original team: (1) Ewa Radzikowska, (20) John Cincola, (21) Stefan Auvergne, (40) Alli Phillips
Transactions
- Waiver Period #2: Added Tammy Emmrich and waived Alli Phillips
Current team: Ewa Radzikowska, John Cincola, Stefan Auvergne, Alli Phillips
Last 5 Matches: W (3-2) ATL, L (1-3) SoCal, W (3-2) Black Bears, W (3-2) CHI, L (2-3) Aces
I had to go all the way back to the second day of MLP Atlanta (the first tournament of the year) to find the last five matches for the Pandas. Cincola and Auvergne have significantly underachieved in the regular season thus far. They should be winning at the 50-60 percent range and if they do, I think Frisco is in a great spot. Emmrich was a great pickup and they have a very good Dreambreaker team, too.
Chance of making playoffs: 65 percent
The Pandas have A LOT of matches and points on the board. Because they need to average 1.6 points per match and are already averaging 1.71 – plus the addition of Emmrich – I like their odds of making the playoffs
5. Chicago Slice
Original team: (2) Jack Munro, (19) Allison Harris, (22) Kelsey Grambeau, (39) Brendon Long
Transactions
- Waiver Period #1: Added Megan Fudge and waived Kelsey Grambeau
- Substitution: Martin Emmrich played in MLP Kansas City for Jack Munro (Excused Absence)
Current team: Jack Munro, Allison Harris, Megan Fudge, Brendon Long
Last 5 Matches: L (0-4) Black Bears, W (3-1) Black Bears, L (2-3) SoCal, W (4-0) Breakers, W (3-2) ATL
Jack Munro has literally played three matches thus far in the 2024 MLP campaign and all three have not gone well - Munro is 2-4. He will pair up with Megan Fudge, whom he has had recent success with. Fudge gives the team a big boost and even though they are currently lower in the standings, I have the Slice higher here because they were very successful in MLP Kansas City. With Fudge, I expect them to make the playoffs.
Chance of making playoffs: 68 percent
Chicago needs to average 1.6 ppm and are just short of that now. This is a formidable team that is well rounded and good in Dreambreakers.
4. Atlanta Bouncers
Original team: (4) Jaume Martinez Vich, (17) Genie Erokhina, (26) Todd Fought, (37) Angie Walker
Transactions
- Trade: Immediately prior to Waiver Period 2: Traded Genie Erokhina and cash to the Black Bears for Susannah Barr
- Waiver Period #2: Added Emily Cederquist and waived Angie Walker
Current team: Jaume Martinez Vich, Susannah Barr, Todd Fought, Emily Cederquist
Last 5 Matches: W (3-1) Black Bears, L (2-3) Black Bears, W (3-1) Breakers, L (1-3) SoCal, L (2-3) CHI
The Bouncers are good but should be better. They lost to the last-place Black Bears in a Dreambreaker in Kansas City. I am shocked at how bad the Bouncers are at Dreambreakers this year. If they had gone just 3-4 in Dreambreakers, they would be in first place overall right now. They are obviously deficient in women’s doubles but should be a top team in that category moving forward with Cederquist and Barr.
Chance of making playoffs: 82 percent
The Bouncers need to average 1.5 points per match in order to make the playoffs. With their men’s team being top three and their women’s team now being top three, they should easily average this. They need to get it together in Dreambreakers, however.
3. Las Vegas Night Owls
Original team: (8) Chao "Zoey" Yi Wang, (13) Judit Castillo, (28) Mohaned Alhouni, (33) Anderson Scarpa
Transactions
- Trade: Immediately prior to Waiver Period 2: Traded Mo Alhouni and cash to the Black Bears for Rafa Hewett
- Trade: Immediately prior to Waiver Period 2: Traded Anderson Scarpa and cash to the LA Mad Drops (Premier Level) for Blaine Hovenier
Current team: Zoey Wang, Judit Castillo, Rafa Hewett, Blaine Hovenier
Last 5 Matches: W (3-2) ATL, W (3-2) CHI, W (3-1) Black Bears, L (1-3) Breakers, L (1-3) SoCal
The Night Owls are an interesting case study. After finishing second at the Mid-Season Tournament and being in first place overall in the regular season, the Night Owls decided to fire their GM, Kaitlyn Kerr, for ... asking for equal pay? She was a big part of why the team was so good – she brought energy, provided scouting and was an asset coaching as well.
Now the Night Owls have two new men on the team and everyone needs to adjust to their new roles. Hewett has been the biggest underperformer this year in Challenger Level. Can he turn it around for Vegas?
Chance of making playoffs: 85 percent
The Night Owls need to average 1.5 ppm in order to make the playoffs. The Hewett and Hovenier trades are immediate upgrades and the women’s team is one of the best. I can only imagine this team getting better.
Erik Tice
2. Brooklyn Aces
Original team: (6) Lina Padegimaite, (15) Daniel De La Rosa, (24) Martin Emmrich, (35) Layne Sleeth
Transactions
- Trade: Immediately prior to Waiver Period 1: Traded Martin Emmrich and cash to the Texas Ranchers for Pablo Tellez
Current team: Lina Padegimaite, Daniel De La Rosa, Pablo Tellez, Layne Sleeth
Last 5 Matches: W (3-2) ATL, W (3-2) CHI, W (3-1) Black Bears, L (1-3) Breakers, L (1-3) SoCal
The Aces now have the best player in the Challenger Level after trading for Pablo Tellez. They won the Mid-Season Tournament and are in first place. Everything seems to be going their way. The reason I have them in second is because they haven’t played in a couple of months and SoCal has been tearing it up. This team is well constructed and I believe they will end the year in first place.
Chance of Making Playoffs: 95 percent
The Aces are going to make the playoffs – can they keep that first-round bye they have currently by finishing first or second at the end of the year?
1. SoCal Hard Eights
Original team: (7) Irina Tereschenko, (14) Erik Lange, (27) Christine Maddox, (34) Max Manthou
Transactions
- Waiver Period #1: Added Yana Newell and waived Christine Maddox
Current team: Irina Tereschenko, Erik Lange, Yana Newell, Max Manthou
Last 5 Matches: W (3-1) LV, W (3-2) Breakers, W (3-1) ATL, W (3-2) CHI, W (3-2) Black Bears
The Hard Eights were not good in the beginning of the season. The men were decent, the women struggled, and the mixed teams were disastrous. Yana coming on board helped propel them to 10 straight wins (including Mid-Season Tournament) and they are now second in the standings. No one is hotter in the Challenger Level. If this team can figure out how to win a few more mixed doubles matches, it’s lights out for the competition.
Chance of making playoffs: 95 percent
The Hard Eights are on a tear and don’t seem to be slowing down. They only need to average 1.3 points per match to remain qualified for the playoffs.
